USDA: WASDE Maintains Forecast for Use of Corn in Ethanol


The USDA maintained its forecast for the use of corn in ethanol from 2021 to 22 in its latest Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on December 9. .

The USDA estimates that 93.3 million acres of corn have been planted for 2021-2022, of which 85.1 million are expected to be harvested. Yield per planted area is expected to be 177 bushels per acre. Starting stocks stand at 1.236 billion bushels, with production at 15.062 billion. Feed and residual use is estimated at 16.323 billion bushels. Exports are estimated at 2.5 billion bushels, with total use at 14.83 billion bushels and closing stocks at 1.493 billion bushels. The average seasonal farm price of corn is $ 5.45 per bushel. All figures were maintained from the November WASDE.

The USDA projects that 5.25 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2021-’22, up from 5.028 million bushels in 2020-’21. About 4.857 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2019-2020.

Foreign maize production is expected to increase, as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for China. EU maize production is increased, reflecting increases for France, Romania and Poland. Maize production in Ukraine is higher based on the results harvested to date. Maize production in China is reduced, reflecting the latest information released by the National Bureau of Statistics which indicated a larger area which was more than offset by a reduction in yield.

Maize exports are increased for Ukraine and the EU. Imports are increased for Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom, but decreased for Israel. For 2020-2021, corn exports to Brazil are increased for the local marketing year starting in March 2021, based on higher than expected shipments through November. Ending stocks of foreign corn are increased, mainly reflecting increases for Ukraine, EU, Mexico and Iran which are partly offset by a reduction for China.

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