US organic markets both bearish and bullish

SILVER SPRING, MD. – An analyst at Mercaris, an online market data and trading service for organic and non-GMO products, expects big swings in organic grain and oilseed prices in 2022-23 due to a harvest record soybeans, reduced corn production and a tight overall supply of organic wheat.

After two years of rising prices, organic soybean values ​​are expected to weaken in the first half of 2022-23 due to record production in 2022. The large domestic harvest is also expected to limit import demand for organic soy.

The supply of organic corn is expected to remain stable despite declining acreage in 2022, and prices are expected to rise.

“We estimated that 2022-23 started with large carryover stocks of organic corn,” said Ryan Koory, vice president of economics at Mercaris. “However, U.S. organic corn production is expected to decline this fall, more than offsetting these carryover stocks and keeping prices supported through harvest. Additionally, the outlook for US organic corn imports is expected to be bullish for prices as supply issues in Argentina, Canada and the Black Sea region reduce US imports of organic whole and cracked corn.

He expects higher U.S. organic corn prices to persist through the fall of 2023.

Mercaris also had a bullish outlook for U.S. organic wheat, noting improved spring wheat yields from a year ago, but lower overall production, “maintaining generally tight supplies and bullish support below prices.” “. Persistent drought conditions across large swathes of the U.S. High Plains are expected to result in mixed wheat quality, high protein levels and “uncertain prospects for the 2023-24 organic winter wheat crop.”

Koory said he doesn’t expect higher U.S. organic corn and wheat prices to last, with prices falling in the last half of 2023 as farmers likely move some acres from soybeans to the corn and wheat. At the same time, lower organic soybean production should support soybean prices.

“Organic soybean acreage in the United States could decline by 25% over the 2023-2024 period,” Koory said. “Half of those acres are expected to be turned into organic corn, with organic spring wheat acreage also increasing slightly.”

Mercaris noted that its outlook is “highly dependent on the absence of additional trade disruptions over the coming year and U.S. weather conditions facilitating more typical growing conditions.”

About Marco C. Nichols

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