Deliveries from producers in relation to the forecast evolution of demand

DTN’s Nov. 3 comment pointed to a Twitter post from an Alberta grain broker noting that approximately 40,000 tonnes of U.S. corn had just been traded in southern Alberta, stating that “the demand for U.S. corn will continue to rise as barley becomes harder to buy.” “

The attached graph compares the percentage change in deliveries year over year to facilities allowed in week 13 or the first quarter of the crop year (blue bars) which are compared to the change in demand for year over year, as predicted in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s October estimates.

For all crops, deliveries from licensed producers or all crops totaled 16,914 mmt over 13 weeks, up 11% or 1,673 mmt from the same period of the previous crop year, while increasing by 869,840 mt over compared to the five-year average. At the same time, AAFC forecasts that total demand for all major field crops will increase by 18.1% in 2022-23.

Interesting to see data for wheat which shows cumulative wheat deliveries up 42% over the same period in 2021-22, while total demand is forecast to rise 23.4%. Canola deliveries are down 4.7% from last year, while AAFC forecasts total demand (exports plus crushing) to increase 38.3%.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at [email protected]

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson

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