By Kirk Maltais
–Corn for December delivery rose 1.1% to $ 5.53 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, amid better-than-expected export sales figures reported by the USDA this morning.
–Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.2% to $ 13.28 1/2 a bushel.
–Wheat for September delivery fell 0.6% to $ 7.12 3/4 a bushel.
Export Support: Today’s USDA Export Sales Report, along with a notice of a new flash sale of 300,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, have Cereal futures on the CBOT higher Thursday. âWhile the current season corn and bean sales didn’t give campers much, the new sales weren’t that bad,â said Dan Hueber of the Hueber Report. Wheat and soybean export sales fell within estimates from traders polled by the Wall Street Journal this week, but corn sales exceeded targets. Most of these sales were for 2021/22 corn, with Mexico and Japan being the main buyers.
Prepare: Much of the trade seen throughout the day is in anticipation of what the USDA WASDE report could say next week about grain supply and demand in the United States. “I expect some long positions to come out as private trading groups suggest that US corn and soybean production will eventually become significant, although demand for new crops increases based on export sales of USDA and the latest USDA 24 hour announcement, âsaid Terry Reilly of Futures International.
Technical Trading: Wheat futures on the CBOT ended lower today, making this the third session in a row that they have been trading lower. However, much of this movement is technical in nature – with fundamentals still favorable to prices, said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. “Wheat prices have had the short end of inter-market spreads dragging them into the red,” Suderman said. “Spring wheat fundamentals remain tight … Among other things, the USDA is expected to reduce production estimates for US spring wheat, Canadian wheat and Russian wheat production in next week’s WASDE report.”
Bottom line: Healthy corn and soybean crop conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt are unlikely to compensate for damage to crops on the Western and Northern Plains, said Linn & Associates. In estimates released today, the trading company forecasts the national corn yield at 176.1 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 49.5 bushels per acre, both lower than current USDA estimates. âRecord return potential exists in many states in the Eastern Belt, particularly Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Kentucky,â the company said. âUnfortunately, significant production losses have likely occurred in the west, particularly in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota. the west. ”
Unlikely: A potential decision by the Biden administration to increase U.S. mandates for biofuels would benefit corn prices – but such a move is unlikely, Capital Economics said. According to the firm, US President Biden is unlikely to implement a measure that would raise gasoline prices for consumers before the 2022 midterm election. “All in all, we believe demand for corn in the United States will hold up over the next eighteen months as mandates for biofuels remain unchanged, âthe company said. “As a result, the world market will become surplus, which supports our view that the price of corn will drop to 450 US cents per bushel by the end of 2022.”
–The CFTC will release its weekly trader engagement report at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday.
– The USDA will release its weekly report on export inspections at 11 a.m. ET on Monday.
–USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report at 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires