Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Friday, October 22


Andrew Mount scours the SpreadEx markets to find the best fixed odds and the best bets for Friday horse races.

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Andrew successfully took on Edinburgh Castle and Lucky Robin, who finished last and second to last, in the 2.40 at Ludlow yesterday and has some interesting angles in Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury:

Horse betting tips for Friday, October 22

DONCASTER 1.30

Ralph Beckett is targeting this girl of the mile for fillies, winning her three times out of seven runners in the past ten years, going from three to three with runners who started with single-digit odds. MOON OF VEGA, from the same father (Lope De Vega) as Beckett’s 2018 winner, Dancing Vega, can put her experience to good use and make it four out of four for her suitors. She slowly pulled away and ran green when she was only fifth in Kempton in August, where she was reportedly hit. She took a step forward when she held the same position at Newmarket next time around, making the second best of those who came from rhythm. Also patiently ridden finalist Peripatetic gave the form a boost when improving at Newcastle next time around. There are plenty of promising newcomers in the opposition, but seven of the last ten winners had previous experience and it could prove vital again. Moon De Vega can be backed 5-2 in SpreadEx fixed odds bets or bought in the market for 50-30-20-10 races on spreads.

Recommendation: Return MOON DE VEGA to Doncaster 1h30

DONCASTER 2.05

Ralph Beckett saddles too JIMI HENDRIX in this maiden 7f, her first runner in the race since Breath Caught won a division by a wide margin in 2017. The New Bay colt was too green to do himself justice when 11-1 on his Salisbury debut at the late last month but ran with huge credit, staying within a fifth of four lengths after missing the start. New Bay’s offspring has an excellent second-time success rate and simply backing all of the sire’s juvenile reps over 7f or more on the turf, no matter how many runs they had, would have found 23 winners out of 89 bets for £ 51.70 profit for £ 1 level upgrade at SP. It is currently valued at 100-30 in SpreadEx Fixed Odds Bets or can be bought on the 50-30-20-10 Spread Index.

Recommendation: Bet JIMI HENDRIX at Doncaster 2.05

NEWBURY

Ralph Beckett also has five live chances at Newbury and it’s interesting to see strong overnight support for four of them – DELOREAN (1.38), CRESTA DE VEGA (2.13), POSTMARK (2.48) and OMAN in the handicap 1m5f (3.58). The rides are split between Rob Hornby and ROSSA RYAN and buying one or both of them on the SpreadEx Newbury JOCKEYS market could pay dividends. At the time of writing, their spreads were set at 22-24 and 23-25 ​​respectively, with 25 pts offered for a win, 10 pts for a second place and 5 pts for a third. I just prefer Rossa Ryan, because he also has interesting mounts for other sites, notably ALAADEE for Richard Hannon in the 2.13 which is high to appreciate the very soft ground.

Recommendation: Buy ROSSA RYAN at the Newbury JOCKEYS MARKET

CHELTENHAM 2.30

FIDELIO VALLIS was beaten at Chepstow on his recent return to action and might be worth opposing again. The six-year-old who was trained by Paul Nicholls tends to save his best efforts for spring, registering numbers of 111,111 (6-6) from late February to late May. His record outside of this period is 7F2422 (0-6). THIRD TIME LUCKI and ANY NEWS both have solid claims and Fidelio Vallis might have to settle for second or hopefully third place.

Recommendation: oppose FIDELIO VALLIS in Cheltenham 2.30

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