Andrew Mount’s October 2 horse betting advice column includes his top six bets for Saturday. After more than two decades of work in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and informant lets punters discover his secret systems. Andrew regularly posts in the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, while his advice also appears on GG.co.uk. Tune in to William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV where he appears as a regular expert. Andrew likes to take the statistical approach to his bets and there are reasons punters should follow!
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After a 9/4 winner at Newcastle on Friday, Andrew has fantasies of Ascot, Killarney, Chester, Redcar and Wolverhampton today. Find out below why these horses seduce on a busy Saturday:
4.25 – PENDLETON (system – father Garswood 4 years + in Flat)
Garswood’s offspring tend not to peak until they are four years old. If we had backed all the former qualifiers on the Flat (turf or All-Weather) then we would have found 33 winners out of 232 runners (strike rate 14.2%) for a profit of £ 89.58 at a stake of £ 1 to SP.
PENDLETON rarely shows much in midsummer (Jun-Aug) but his record outside this period is 2212512210 (3-10), improving to 2211221 (3-7) on good to soft / softer terrain or surface all the time. He wasn’t dishonored on too fast a pitch when 40-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup last time around, finishing eleventh out of 24, and can bounce back with conditions underfoot in his favor.
Bet on Pendleton at SBK
1.25 – SHOW OF STARS (system – Paddy Twomey new arrivals)
There are two strong angles when it comes to the Paddy Twomey yard – supporting stable switchers (horses that he takes over from other yards) at first request and supporting beginners on the racetrack. STAR SHOW qualifies on the latter system which produced 11 winners out of 65 runners (17% strike rate) for a profit of £ 32.20 at a stake of £ 1 at SP.
Dividing them by class makes for interesting reading. They only landed two winners out of 30 Class D or higher riders, but are nine out of 29 in Class E society (31%, + £ 56.20). Today’s race is a Class E competition, so Show Of Stars might be worth a bet.
Back Show Of Stars at SBK
2:30 p.m. – FIRST COMPANY (system – father Fast Company on soft or heavy terrain)
FIRST COMPANY dragged home the last of 22 to York in August on his last outing, but has since been neutered and will enjoy the smooth start and return to Chester. He has only raced here twice before, finishing second by three-quarters length on a handicap of 94 (5f, good to soft) and an embarrassed fifth out of 96 when he only descended a length and a half ( 5f, good).
He runs on a score of just 85 today and has the draw in Stall 1. The sire, Fast Company, has a strong record with his offspring on soft or heavy terrain, scoring with 84 of 639 starters (13, 2%) since the start of 2016 for a profit of £ 55.75 for a £ 1 stake in SP. Removing two-year-olds from the calculations increases profit to £ 127.95 at SP (nearly 25% on turnover).
Back First company at SBK
3.05 – LOTUS ROSE (systems – Jane Elliott small fields & Showcasing bull on soft ground)
Jane Elliott has the weird knack of being in the right place at the right time in small field, tactical grass racing and this underrated jockey is taken to get a melody of LOTUS PINK.
As of the start of 2019, if we had backed his mounts on turf in fields of nine runners or less, we would have won 34 of our 192 bets (17.8% strike rate) and made a profit of £ 63.35 at SP.
The filly’s sire Showcasing is on my list of juvenile soft-ground sires and, since racing resumed after lockdown last June, his two-year-old offspring is showing £ 70.23 profit at an upgrade from £ 1 on voucher to mild or sweeter.
Bet on Lotus Rose at SBK
4.45 – DELGREY BOY (system – Redcar Straight-course handicaps, low draws)
Tim Easterby has won four of the last five renewals of this straight mile series final and has another live chance with DELGREY BOY, who has the best draw in stall 1 of 12. Aside from a jolt in August, it has been a big advantage to be pulled low on the straight course (5f-1m) at Redcar this quarter.
Supporting horses drawn in stalls 1 and 2 blind in handicaps would have found 18 winners out of 96 bets for a profit of £ 21.24. If the predicted strong tailwind materializes, then this leading runner could prove difficult to catch.
Bet on Delgrey Boy at SBK
6:30 am – CANFORD BAY (system – Antony Brittain all season runners, recent release)
CANFORD BAY drew attention when he was fourth at Newcastle last week, making the best of those prominently mounted in a race to suit the closest. His coach’s All-Weather runners have a strong record when they returned to the track quickly (within ten days), scoring with 58 of 339 qualifying (17.1%) for a profit of £ 45.50. Canford Bay have qualified on this system 12 times, winning three times for a profit of £ 16.50.
Return Canford Bay to SBK
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